FORTY-nine is likely to be Worcester City's lucky number as they chase Dr Martens Leag-ue Premier Division saf-ety.

That is my estimate of the number of points City will need to be absolutely certain of their survival come the end of the season.

Monday's defeat against title-chasing Boston leaves them six points short of that target.

And John Barton's men should be well capable of doing that in the seven games they have left.

In theory, they probably won't need as many points as that - but the bottom of the table has been so incredibly tight this season that City will want to be absolutely certain rather than scrape home.

However, since Barton's arrival in November, their form has been that of a top five side, and only their disastrous start under Graham Allner has left them still in need of points for salvation.

This Saturday's trip to rock-bottom Rothwell Town should provide City with the perfect opportunity to know three points off their target.

Their remaining games include home clashes with two other relegation rivals - Crawley Town on April 8 and Dorchester Town on April 29 - plus a trip to Gloucester City on Easter Monday (April 24).

Victory in either of those games would have the added effect of knocking back the hopes of one of their relegation rivals.

They also have two high-flyers to face - Margate away on April 15 and Tamworth at home on April 22 - but have shown themselves more than capable of living with the best teams in recent weeks.

City will be hoping by the time of their last game at Clevedon Town on May 6, they will be free from danger.

I predict City will take at least 11 points from their remaining games - which will be more than enough to leave Barton and his men safe.

Thursday, March 30, 2000.