AS we launch into 2006, the annual debate on the expected state of the economy for the year ahead unfolds.

The national media sometimes has conflicting predictions and forecasts. One well known broadsheet reported that although Gordon Brown has promised a recovery in Britain's fortunes, after the weakest year since the recession in the early nineties few business leaders have confidence in his optimistic predictions.

A recent Mori poll showed that 66 per cent expect the economy to worsen.

Despite their pessimism about the general outlook, most senior executives expect their own companies to be able to ride the storm in 2006 and more than 57 per cent thought business would improve.

There are armfuls of mind-boggling statistics available, but what is the real feeling about the year ahead from a more local perspective?

Vivienne Hudson of HotelShop (Worcestershire Business of the Year 2003) explained her position: "2006 has started strongly for us with an increase in both our corporate and leisure sectors.

"We have revisited our strategy and are putting more emphasis on our on-line product and focusing on our customer service to help us grow our market share.

"It will not be an easy year, but we feel we have a plan in place to ensure HotelShop expands."

Mike Hardiman, chief executive of the Carpet Foundation, sees the year ahead as 'patchy', some organisations doing well, others not so well.

He believes it will be "survival of the fittest" and sees the whole picture being driven by the housing market.

"When house transactions are down, demand for consumer

durables drops. It's all to do with confidence. Our feeling of wealth dictates our spending.

"Of course, debt is a big issue as are soaring energy costs. In general I predict an interesting year ahead... much of the same!"

John Bartlett, the Bank of England representative who gathers our views at a business panel on a regular basis, explained: "Businesses are facing a range of challenges, including in particular the cost of energy, and some companies are finding profit margins squeezed. However, overall against the background of the world economy, prospects for 2006 look reasonably good".

Mmm... does that mean we all have to pedal our bike faster to stand still?