I have always believed that Gordon Brown will stay until his day of reckoning with the electorate. I do not think it likely that 70 Labour MPs will sign his death warrant in time for the Labour Conference (if Parliament was sitting it might be different; for an open rebellion of this size you need everyone in the same room at the same time).
Nor do I believe that he will go voluntarily. Would you wish to go down as the worst Prime Minister ever? Would I?
Like anyone else would, if it is his shout, he will stay put and hope for something better to turn up. It is, of course, possible that his cabinet will force him out.
July was ‘I hate MPs’ month. Despite all the venom against MPs, 18 people managed the struggle to turn up at my recent interviews, in most cases having already tried every other possible avenue of help, presumably because they think I work miracles.
The jibe going round the House of Commons describing the Cabinet as ‘Brown’s little helpers’ is close to the mark.
In my 35 years in Parliament I have rarely known such a collection of weak men and women in control. Hardly likely that this lot will make a joint move against the Prime Minister.
That said, after the appalling run of political catastrophes he has suffered, it would be surprising, assuming he does not fall on his sword, if Brown did not bring back some of the stronger figurers currently on the back benches.
What about Blunkett, Clarke or Beckett? (Milburn has apparently said, “No thank you”.)
They say that in the House of Commons your opponents are in front of you and your enemies are behind you.
That is why the benches opposite me are worth a close study every time Brown is mauled by Cameron at Prime Minister’s Question Time.
Could it be glee on the face of the Blairites? Surely not.
Finally something nice: One regular customer who has been coming to see me on and off for 25 years recently brought me a box of chocolates in the belief that there will be an immediate General Election – at which I will hand over the Conservative candidature to my excellent successor, Harriett Baldwin.
I have eaten the chocolates. Whether I deserved to do so we shall see.
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