YouGov suggests Worcester about to elect a Labour MP

YouGov’s latest projection predicts a Labour gain from the Conservatives in the city - a seat Robin Walker had held for Tories for the past 14 years.

Its model, which uses survey data from almost 60,000 respondents, predicts what would happen if the general election were happening right now, with people’s vote intention as it currently stands.

In Worcester, YouGov has Labour winning 45 percent of the vote, the Conservatives second on 29 percent, Reform, who have not announced a candidate, third on 10 percent, the Greens on 8 percent and the Lib Dems on 7 percent.

Tory candidate Marc Bayliss says the poll does not reflect what he's seeing on the doorstep (Image: Marc Bayliss)

Nationally, it puts Keir Starmer’s Labour party on 422 seats - a bigger majority than Tony Blair managed in 1997 and the second largest in British political history.

The Tories would be reduced to 140, their worst performance at a General Election since 1906.

YouGov has the Lib Dems back as the third biggest party in the House of Commons with 48 seats, the SNP on 17, the Greens doubling their number of MPs to two and Plaid Cymru also on two.

Marc Bayliss, the Conservative candidate for Worcester, said: “It’s not what I’m seeing on the doorstep. A lot of people don’t like Keir Starmer.

“I think people are working out who they want to be our Prime Minister and we got some very good feedback after the debate - I think Rishi Sunak made some strong points.

Lib Dem candidate Mel Allcott says the polls are looking for her party nationally (Image: Mel Allcott)

“Certainly there’s no big tidal wave towards Labour. Worcester is still very much in play.

"Immigration is a worry to people, they are concerned about taxes and interested in what I want to do as our MP.

“This issue of VAT on independent school fees also has a surprising amount of people concerned. They see it could impact state schools in terms of the additional places needed if people can’t afford the increased fees.”

Mel Allcott, Worcester’s Liberal Democrat candidate, said: “I’d be astonished if the Greens came ahead of us in the General Election. I think the polls are skewed because of the amount of Green councillors we have.

“It is looking positive for us nationally. It is evidence people are sick of the Conservatives taking them for granted and are looking for a change - and that Labour are not necessarily a change at this time.”

The Green Party's Tor Pingree wants to see four Green MPs elected across the country on July 4 (Image: Tor Pingree)

Tor Pingree, the city’s Green Party candidate, said: “I’m always ambitious and I’d like to see us get four MPs, but you can only go on what the polls show and getting more MPs than we have is always a positive thing.

“We’re getting a lot of positive reactions on the doorstep, we have a lot of Green councillors now - people are aware of us. We got the popular vote in Worcester at the local elections so that shows people are voting for Green policies.”

We have also contacted Labour candidate Tom Collins for comment.