General Election: Poll predicts Labour wins in Worcester

The latest modelling from Electoral Calcus shows a huge victory for Labour - and a crushing blow for the Conservatives.

Electoral Calculus predicts outcomes of general elections based on electoral models and user-defined predictions.

According to its predictions, Worcester has a 97 per cent chance of becoming Labour, with a voter percentage of 56.2 per cent based on 2019's voter turnout of 73,485 voters.

Voter predictions for Worcester. (Image: Electoral Calculus)

The shocking figures indicate a landslide victory for the Labour Party amid the current issues surrounding the Conservatives and Prime Minister Liz Truss.

As well as the overall turnout, Electoral Calculus gives an individual constituency drill down to ward level. 

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Out of the 15 wards across the city of Worcester, every single ward has been predicted to vote Labour.

In the 2019 general election, ten wards all voted a Conservative majority, and the remaining five wards voted Labour.

Robin Walker is the Conservative MP for Worcester and has been an MP continuously since May 6 2010.

He won his seat from former Labour MP Mike Foster by 2,982 votes.

Robin Walker MP. (Image: Jonathan Barry)

During the 2019 general election, Robin Walker comfortably retained his seat by 6,758 votes.

The Labour landslide statistics are also represented across the UK, with current opinion polling far greater than even the majorities achieved by Tony Blair in 1997 and 2001.

Across the UK, Labour is poised to gain 178 seats, taking their 203 total at the 2019 general election to 381.

The Conservative Party would lose 191 seats, taking their 365 total from the 2019 general election to 174.

The Liberal Democrats would also gain 10 seats and the Scottish National Party would gain a further three seats.

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A spokesperson for Electoral Calculus said: "Since the government's mini-budget on September 23, support for the Conservative party has fallen far and fast. As of October 17, the Labour lead over the Conservatives now stands at 26pc.

"Since Labour need a lead of about 10pc for a majority, the current extraordinary lead implies a correspondingly extraordinary parliamentary majority of 364 seats.

"The Conservatives now have less than half the length of parliament to turn the polls around. But they also face economic headwinds in the short term as both family budgets and government spending are squeezed by inflation and higher interest rates.

"Debt deleveraging and higher rates may be good for the economy in the longer term, but the next election will happen before then."