ANYBODY who tells you they know the result of this general election is either lying or a pollster.

I have written in these columns in the past that there is only one poll I believe in - the exit poll on election night.

Time after time they have been spectacularly wrong. Lowlights have included the 2015 election result, Trump's victory and, of course, the European Union vote in 2016.

Indeed history feels a bit like it is repeating itself with Boris Johnson's move for a December election. Remember Prime Minister Theresa May looking at the polls in 2017 and deciding a snap election was the right course.

Not only did she go on to lose her majority, eventually it would spectacularly backfire in losing key votes and lead to her losing her job in the summer.

So is Boris Johnson right to be confident this time when the Tories are ahead in the polls? The big problem for him is there are so many variables at play.

One of the major ones happened early, with Nigel Farage announcing he would stand candidates against Conservative MPs.

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Will that split votes in leave areas?

And what about Scotland. The Tories gains there helped Theresa May stay in power last time, but there is a feeling SNP could win those seats.

Labour and Jeremy Corbyn too can not be confident of anything right now. Could Labour leavers look at the Brexit party as an option? And what if the Liberal Democrats attract Labour voters.

At least at this point the Brexit policies of the parties are clear. The Tories offer the PM's deal, Labour offers a new deal and a final referendum, while the Lib Dems say they want to cancel Brexit altogether.

There are other elements that also come into play. A December election could mean the weather prevents people getting to polling stations, if a 'beast from the east' snowstorm came from nowhere.

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What will happen with the TV debates? At the moment, to Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson's disgust, only one has been organised and that does not include her or other smaller party leaders.

And could there be a low turn out? Some potential voters, fed up of politics, have said they will be more interested in Christmas shopping than voting on December 12.

At this point it is all to play for.