IF climate change continues at its current rate over the next few hundred years - producing higher temperatures and melting major ice sheets - Worcester won't be awash with water but it could be flooded with people.

The city is high enough above sea level to avoid submersion but it could become a refuge for those whose homes are underwater.

These are some of the possibilities being considered by scientists studying climate change and its repercussions.

According to Dr Peter Moody, scientist and environmental expert based at the University of Worcester, global temperatures are rising but there are many factors affecting the state of the planet and some balance the effects of others.

"There are differing opinions on how rapid the sea levels are rising. The questions are how fast will it happen, and how fast will it get in the future," he said.

"Globally, the temperature is slowly rising. There may be a rise in some places but a fall in temperature in others. Overall temperature is rising.

"With an increase in temperature, the ice is going to melt more rapidly but there is also more snowfall - so the two effects do cancel each other out to some degree.

"The carbon dioxide levels are rising but this makes the plants more active in absorbing carbon dioxide."

According to the Benfield Research Centre, based at University College London: "More evidence came to light in the course of last year for the growing instability of the Greenland and west Antarctic ice sheets, offering the prospect of dramatically rising sea levels over the next few centuries."

The centre says the amount of ice melting into the sea from the Greenland ice sheet has been increasing quickly and if the whole of it collapsed it would ultimately lead to a rise in global sea levels of around 7.2 metres.

The research centre says the melting of both the Greenland and west Antarctic ice sheets could result in a 13-metre rise in sea levels, although Dr Moody said it would be unlikely the ice sheets would melt completely.

But even if they did, he pointed out that the River Severn at Worcester is about 20 metres above sea level and the university is about 30 metres above sea level.

"Worcester should be OK but we might see some flooding in south Worcestershire. I reckon Gloucester is in trouble though," said Dr Moody.

"Worcester is comparatively high above sea level. Places like the Florida Keys and New Orleans are very low-lying. The Pacific coral atolls would be affected."

But while Worcester would not be directly affected by flooding due to sea level rises of this degree, it is likely to experience a knock-on effect.

"There will be effects on other parts of Britain and this will have a knock-on effect for Worcester. People from places that are flooded will need somewhere else to live," said Dr Moody.

He said it was very difficult to predict what would happen in the future because there could be factors that are not being taken into account and sometimes this meant situations turned out better than expected and in some cases worse.

According to the Benfield Centre, some scientists argue that the warmer waters heading towards the Arctic and North Atlantic Drift are slowing down and, if this persists, temperatures in the UK and Europe could fall by about one degree centigrade over the coming decades.

A Benfield Centre report says: "This may not sound like much, but it could bring winter conditions similar to those that gripped the region during the Little Ice Age between the 15th and 19th centuries, which saw sea ice in the Channel, frost fairs on the Thames and skating on the Dutch canals."

With so much conflicting evidence and opinion it is hard to predict what the future holds. So, is it too late to stop the changes?

Dr Moody said it would help if everyone did their bit to reduce carbon emissions by using fuel efficient cars and reducing their energy consumption. He said it was important for the developed countries to set an example to the developing world, which wants to achieve that same sort of lifestyle.

"We do not have to use fossil fuels all the time. In Britain we are quite lucky - we have the potential for wind farms and hydroelectricity."

According to Professor James Lovelock - who first proposed the Gaia Theory, arguing that the earth is constantly re-balancing itself - there have been at least seven major climate changes in the Earth's 4.6-billion year history.

He says there is very strong evidence that a geological change 55 million years ago emitted as much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as humans are doing now and temperatures zoomed up, stayed there for 200,000 years and then returned to normal.

He believes a lot of people will die during the course of global warming but he doesn't see the human race dying out completely.

He thinks reducing the impact people have on the planet, by going greener, is only buying time before the inevitable - but more time is better than nothing.

WORCESTER THROUGH THE AGES

IF Worcestershire was submerged in the future, it would not be the first time.

Tom Richards, Worcestershire geodiversity co-ordinator for the Herefordshire and Worcestershire Earth Heritage Trust, has researched the geological history of the county and his findings show the area has undergone several massive changes from being ocean-covered to desert. It was also located much further south on a similar latitude to the present Caribbean and, over millions of years, has moved to its present position in northern Europe.

* In Cambrian times (542-443 million years ago), Worcestershire was under the sea.

* During the Silurian (443-416 million years ago), the county would have been under a shallow sea.

* In Devonian times (416-359 million years ago), there were desert-like conditions in the county.

* In the Carboniferous period (359-299 million years ago), the county was covered by a thick tropical rainforest.

* During Permian times (299-251 million years ago), Worcestershire was a desert similar to the Sahara.

* The Triassic period (251-145 million years ago), was a time when desert conditions prevailed, but with more rivers and water than at Permian times.

* In the Jurassic period (199-145 million years ago), Worcestershire was under a clear, warm, tropical shallow sea.