HEALTH chiefs say they are not "scaremongering" over a deadly flu pandemic.

Figures published by Worcestershire Primary Care Trust suggest the pandemic could kill between 0.5 per cent and 2.5 per cent of people in Worcestershire who develop symptoms.

Around 25 per cent to 50 per cent of the population (136,000 to 276,000 people) could have symptoms with four per cent (22,080) needing a hospital. Half the population of Worcestershire could go off work sick.

No-one knows when it will hit the UK but, on the basis of past pandemics, one is due soon.

Flu pandemic, caused by a mutation to which people have no immunity, killed 40 million people in 1918 and a total of four million in 1957 and 1968. The pandemics have been at intervals between 11 and 40 years, the last 40 years ago. There are concerns avian flu will mutate to form a pandemic.

The PCT, which manages health services such as doctors and dentists, has advised in the report that those who develop flu should rest at home, drink water and take painkillers.

A family member, friend or carer ("flu friend") can pick up antiviral medication (Oseltamavir) to red-uce the spread.

The pandemic was discussed at a PCT board meeting in Pershore on Thursday. Board member Coun Peter Pinfield said: "What you're saying is a bit frightening."

But PCT director of public health Richard Harling said the pandemic was the "number one threat" to national security.

The PCT's health protection consultant Dr Ash Banerjee said: "We don't want to scaremonger and worry people unnecessarily. Our role is to make people aware of the danger. It's not scaremongering."

An antiviral drug needs to be administered within 48 hours of the onset of symptoms to be effective.

The report predicts the pandemic will cause "severe pressure on the NHS" because of flu cases and reduced medical staff, off work through sickness.

GPs will also have difficulty providing their usual services and community flu treatment centres will need to be considered if doctors are not able to cope.

The PCT is also devising a business community management scheme.

Nine anti-viral distribution centres would be set up in Worcestershire to dispense drugs.

Vaccination will have no major impact as a pandemic is caused by a mutated strain to which people have no immunity. It is expected to start in South East Asia, Africa or the Middle East.